Casino Talks

Posted by: DrStrange at October 24, 2007, 7:52 am

Topic: NL50 - Yet another iPoker classic hand. Forum: Bonus Whores

Let me start by saying its a rare day when I would fold top set on a monotone flop. Of course this is a posted hand in a series of hands where the Hero gets busted holding good cards - so at some level I don't hold out much hope for Hero's top set . . . . Its like watching a horror movie as the first coed goes to take her shower alone and the scarry music starts.

Hero is facing a 1/2 pot sized bet from a 51/26/1 villain. Because the villain plays half the hands, you have to make adjustments when evaluating his AF. For a Villain as loose as 51/26, the AF of 1.06 is moderately aggressive (its like a 3.0 AF from a 17/8 TAG) . There is every chance he is semi-bluffing, blocking or betting on air.

Hero can't fold top set for $6.

Hero might decide to smooth call, letting villain 2 come along for the ride hoping to keep the pot small if a 4th club falls. If the Villain doesn't size his bets as the pot grows, this could be an attactive play - but too passive for my taste.

Hero might raise, hoping to price out villain 2's draw and charging Villain 1 to play. Once Hero matches the $6, the pot has ~$24. Villain 2 has too short a stack to affect your bet sizing choice - he will be all-in. Villain 1 has $32 left. I am torn between putting villain 1 all-in with an over bet or trying to get his stack in two-bites. I think I prefer the 'two-bite' plan, so I raise to $20 - $25 intending to put him all-in on the turn no matter what card falls.

Once Hero decides to raise he is pot committed with as powerful a hand as top set. If Hero and the Villains were deep stacked, there might be times to find a fold. Here the Villains start with 80BB and 40BB stacks. Hero can't ever get away from top set, because there is not enough betting room to logically decide the hand is lost.

Given Hero is committed to playing for stacks, he needs to play his cards to maximize his winnings when the villains don't show down a flopped flush. (We know stacks are going in the middle if someone holds the flush) Let's give Villain 1 a small enough raise that he could call with a flush draw and build the pot big enough to make the turn call irresistable.

DrStrange

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