Casino Talks

Posted by: pwrsurge at December 5, 2005, 10:52 pm

Topic: Absolute Poker integrity? Forum: Bonus Whores

From the same site

Quote: Hi Poker Conduct,

At the time of writing this, I'd just finished playing a game at Absolute Poker. Also on the same table was BigWon who contributes to your site. He put a link in the room claiming two of the players were "Shills" (I had no idea what a shill was until I followed the link).

After playing six hands I received a straight flush - an amazingly rare hand by anyone's standards - so I pulled up a computer program I'd written to show the odds of receiving such a hand and adjusted it to show 10,000 hands (as ARIZONA RED SUGGESTED on your site).

As a result, I can confirm your sites claim that the "good hands" found on computer poker tables are enormously elevated from what ought to be random. Here are the average statistics of getting good hands from 10,000 games of computerized poker. I ran the program 20 times, what you see are the averages rounded down to the nearest whole figure.

The result for 10,000 hands.

no hand= 4985
a pair= 4282
two pair= 460
three of a kind= 205
a straight= 38
a flush= 18
a full house= 11
four of a kind= 2
a straight flush= 1
a royal flush =1

In 10,000 random hands, run over 20 games, the total number of straight flushes appearing is 1. The straight flush I got against BigWon appeared after playing six hands at that table. It's also my third one this week and I'm by no means a regular player there.

What worries me about all this is that if computer poker tables are NOT entirely random, then that means the programmers have "adjusted" the code to elevate the good hands received. And if they've done that......how can anyone not be suspicious they've elevated the bad hands players receive at intervals too? Ever played at Absolute Poker and found you can go 20 minutes without winning a single hand?

Just thought you'd like to know.

I wrote a multi-Knuth pass random number generator program (the kind used to generate hands on most poker sites) to see what the likelihood of receiving three straight flushes in 120 hands of poker actually was. In 10,000 random hands dealt over 20 times, a straight flush appeared only once - occasionally not at all - but on average, only once.

Since I wrote to you, I decided to run the program to test 1,000,001 hands of poker 20 times to see how often a straight flush appeared. On average, the final number is 16 times (Using multi pass Knuth shuffling results in over 10^433 different ways to generate data).

You are statistically 11 billion times more likely to be able to predict the lotto numbers three times consecutively than you are to receive three straight flushes in 120 games of poker.

I'm also a little alarmed at the way online poker delivers an elevated amount of pair hole cards to more than one player in the same hand - I'm currently writing a program to calculate the odds of how often that should happen and I'll let you know if I find anything untoward.

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