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Posted by: terrellk11 at June 2, 2006, 6:13 am

Topic: Neteller points question.. Forum: Bonus Whores

luckyfish wrote: Why does everyone always want to dump all their points into one raffle?
This is clearly worse EV than splitting it up.

Take for example you have four raffles to choose from with each 1000 tickets besides yours and you have 1000 tickets to spend. Spending them all at one raffle will give you an EV of 0.5 raffles won, while spending 250 on each of the four gives you an EV of 0.8 raffles won and you will win at least one 59% of the time which is clearly better.
The point is that you will increase the number of tickets with participating, so your $/ticket goes down when you spend many of them into one raffle.

The problem is that even someone with 4 million points and dumps them all into one raffle is still only going to have a small fraction of a percentage of the number of tickets in that raffle, which can be in the hundreds of thousands of tickets. The change in EV is so small that the difference doesn't really matter.

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